International Forecaster Weekly

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GOLD AND SILVER ARE HEADED WAY HIGHER - Inflation-Adjusted Interest Rates Show Why

Guest Writer, February 27 2021

“This alone gives gold and other commodities a generally inverse relationship with the USD.”

But nominal rates don’t necessarily sync with inflation. As Tiggre explains, a nominal 1% interest rate is actually negative if inflation is greater than 1%. “This is why gold and nominal rates can rise together during times of higher inflation.”

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What am I missing??

Bob Rinear, February 24 2021

So, from up here in the cheap seats, it seems to me that Amazon and other major companies have the scale and scope to work out insanely cheap rates with UPS, so they can offer “free shipping,” while the “retail” guy gets to make up for all the money they’re losing on Amazon.

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THE TAX MAN COMETH FOR YOUR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

Guest Writer, February 20 2021

Here’s the thing, though: the federally funded weekly payments ($600 last year, $300 this) — like state UI benefits — are taxable by the IRS at a minimum. 

Most states tax UI benefits as well. Of the 40 states that tax income, only five — California, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Virginia — fully exempt UI benefits. 

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The Great Trade

Bob Rinear, February 17 2021

This is the first time in my 25+ years of writing that I ever endorsed looking into pennies and OTC’s. But things change and right now the landscape is still rich in this sphere. Don’t go overboard, don’t get pie in the sky ideas. Just look around the area, and if you find something interesting take a small shot.  This atmosphere won’t last forever, so it’s now or never.

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Feedback

Bob Rinear, February 13 2021

Well that one resonated with a ton of people, and I want to take the liberty to post up some of the more interesting responses. I think you’ll find them interesting. Then I’ll post up some links that were sent to me that make for good reading.

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Facts are Funny Things

Bob Rinear, February 10 2021

When I was growing up, let’s say in the 60’s and 70’s, almost every day we’d hear about things that were no good for us to eat. On TV the commercials were pushing “fake butter” because real butter will gunk up your arteries, but this processed “scientific” stuff was better for you.

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A Curious Phone Call

Bob Rinear, February 6 2021

It wasn’t even a couple days and Unknown was calling again. I answered it again, saying that I don’t have and never have had a line of credit via paypal. But he was persistent. He said that in 2018 I opened this line of credit, he had the correct email address, and said that I even made several payments, before stopping payments in late 2019.

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WHO BENEFITED FROM STIMULUS 1.0? - Largely Households Making Under $100,000

Guest Writer, February 3 2021

As Congress nears debate on another round of stimulus/relief aid for American households, businesses, state and local governments, schools, Covid vaccination delivery, and more, I thought it would be instructive to see how the direct aid sent as part of Stimulus 1.0 was spent.

A new report from the IRS shows that the first round of economic impact payments (or stimulus checks) primarily benefited households earning less than $100,000. 

This is good news.

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Broken

Bob Rinear, January 30 2021

So here we are, where everyone from staff at the White house, to old dinosaur Wall Street denizens, to SEC members to brokerages, are all trying to figure out what to do with these upstarts. It’s really quite funny to watch.

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ECONOMIC RECOVERY STYMIED BY THE VIRUS - Meanwhile, Global Inequality Threatens to Explode

Guest Writer, January 27 2021

Policymakers’ goal of rolling out vaccines fast and evenly is clear — to erase volatility in the bond market and make debt the cheapest it’s ever been to discourage saving and encourage investment. 

Their hope rests on the premise that cheap cash motivates companies to invest and hire as rising asset prices make people more confident and ready to spend. 

The inevitable side effect, obviously, is even more risky asset volatility as investors chase returns around the world. 

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It Never Ends

Bob Rinear, January 23 2021

First off, what is inflation? We all recognize it as increasing prices when we buy things. The spinner heads will tell you that no, according to the dictionary, inflation is an increase in the money supply. So let me ask, do we have the dictionary description of what inflation is? Let’s see:

Normally characterized by slow, steady growth, the U.S. money supply has grown 20% from $15.33 trillion at the end of 2019 to $18.3 trillion at the end of July.

Well dang! It looks to me like there’s been a quite hefty increase in the money supply, what says you?  You agree? 

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2021 OUTLOOK FOR GOLD IS STRONG - Will It Rise to $2,100, $2,500, $3,000 or More?

Guest Writer, January 20 2021

As you know, the performance of gold responds to the interaction of demand and supply, which, in turn, is influenced by the interplay of four key drivers: 

  • Economic expansion;
  • Risk and uncertainty;
  • Opportunity cost; and
  • Price momentum

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Gold?

Bob Rinear, January 16 2021

All day every day, all we hear about is Bitcoin, and how exciting it is. How more and more people are adopting it. Well, as I wrote a few weeks ago, I missed the whole boat on Bitcoin. The idea of it being anonymous was attractive, but the idea that I couldn’t hold it in my hand, had to rely on “wallets” with passwords, and the fact that I think they can indeed shut it off if they want, told me, I didn’t need it.

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LABOR MARKET RESURGENCE SCREAMS TO A HALT - Any Silver Linings Are a Mirage

Guest Writer, January 13 2021

As 2020 came to a brutal end, an unequal K-shaped recovery was interrupted as the pandemic raged on while the government belatedly enacted an incomplete stimulus/relief package. 

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INFLATION ISN'T COMING...IT'S HERE! Will the Fed's Market Manipulation Actually Help?

Guest Writer, January 9 2021

Well, don’t look now, but meaningful, relevant inflation is already upon us — and has been for some time — not just here in the U.S., but all around the world. 

It shouldn’t come as a surprise either. After all, it’s the Fed’s explicit goal. And what else would you expect when the nation’s money supply (M-2) has grown by 410% since 2000 — and $3.7 trillion, or 24%, in 2020 alone?

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