International Forecaster Weekly

Too Much?

I don’t believe Trump wants war with anyone. I really don’t. But he stepped into a position that’s been created and maintained by war hawks for years on end. Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Syria, Lybia, you name it, and the Military/industrials love it.

Bob Rinear | March 14, 2018

When you write two letters per week for over 22 years, you certainly have covered a lot of ground. Which often begs the question, is there anything to write about? Hasn’t it all been covered? Ha! I would like nothing more than to tell you all that the world is so boring that I have nothing to discuss. What a blessing that would be.

But instead, the world is more “busy” than usual. Cohn is gone as the economic advisor. Tillerson is gone as the State Department head. North Korea, “Might” for the first time in 70 years, come to the table. Russia is being attacked daily by deep state misfits from the UK, Germany and of course most of our sitting Government. Trump, if you listen to the media, is a bumbling fool that can’t get anything right.

There are a lot of topics that I could dive into that most people haven’t even heard of. These are the shadow stories that you have to hunt and peck to find. For instance, if you’re honest with yourself, chances are just 1 in 100 have ever heard of the “Pelican project”. That’s a shame because you’ll be shocked to know that Obama and Clinton actually sold off Florida’s Port Canaveral, to the brother of Saddam Hussein’s nuclear physicist. I could get a couple of weeks out of that little deal. Oh and by the way, it’s also connected to the Uranium One deal. Interesting eh? I’ll have to explain that one to you all one day.

The Central banks of the world now own 47% of the worlds GDP. The US is on track to hit 25 Trillion in debt. The market is at nosebleed levels, spurred on by Central bank buying and low interest rates that has caused US business to take on about a trillion in debt last year to do “buy backs.” I could go on for pages.

So, there’s no shortage of topics to discuss. The bigger question is, which one? Well, let’s combine a few. On Tuesday, after being up as much as 197 points, the DOW ended the day down 171. And what was the excuse for such a lousy performance? Well the rumor is that Trump is considering placing a trillion dollars worth of tariffs on China. That got everyone’s panties in a knot. It’s one thing to place tariffs on steel and aluminum that’s entering the Country. It’s quite something else when you broaden that out. So, is this real? Are we really going to tariff China? Well after the initial mention of that original headline, some more clarity started oozing out and it seems that the real number is closer to 60 billion, and could cover everything from telecom stuff to toys.

So what’s that about? Is Trump really trying to start a global trade war? I think not. I think that he’s playing a very tough game to win. See, we know that the Chinese have been stealing our technology for ages. We know that they create “fakes” that mimic our real products. We know that they send us half a trillion more every year than we send them in product. We also know…they own a big fat hunk of our Treasury debt. To the tune of, oh say a trillion.

My initial guess is that this is the Trump’s way of sending a message to President Xi. “Hey, lets stop the technology theft, and let’s get down to some fairer trade policies. And hey, if you decide to start dumping US Treasuries on us, we’ll tariff every ghee-gaw and gadget you make. It would be mutually assured destruction, so let’s avoid it and get down to some real business.”

Trump is not a politician. He doesn’t waste time trying to figure out the politically correct way of addressing things. He simply knows of the problems and then tosses out what seems to be absurd comments. But, for the most part, he gets things done. It appears to be his style. Toss out something absurd, let both sides go crazy over it and then pick up hints and ideas that actually could do the job he’s trying to accomplish.

Consider Russia. No, not the media’s version, not the idiotic politician’s version. No, the real Russia. There’s a very good reason Trump has not bashed the Russians. It makes NO sense. In a nuclear world, why in God’s earth would you want to try and oppress and hurt them? Remember during his campaign he remarked over and over that it would be better to be civil and do business? Excuse me, but I think he’s on to something. Instead of cold wars and sanctions and blaming Russia for every evil on earth, how about acting like civilized men, smoking a cigar, having a Bourbon or a Vodka and drawing up genuine trade deals? How about trying to improve the lives of Russians and Americans, instead of war mongering fear? Oh, what a novel thought.

Instead, we blame them for everything. Our relations are in the toilet. Trump knows this, and isn’t quick to blame them for every evil in the world. I tend to think that Trump wants good things for us and them. It’s simply that the deep state has made so many trillions by keeping the cold wars alive, that they don’t want that gravy train to end. If Russia is no longer the “big bad boogey man”, then what will they lobby for money to defend us against?

We’re reaching a point where Vladimir is starting to lose his composure. That’s a very dangerous thing. The ONLY reason we haven’t been engaged in a full out shooting war with Russia is because Putin knows it’s a worst case scenario, no matter how hard we push him. But as you saw with his missile video, he is very willing to push back a little.

I don’t believe Trump wants war with anyone. I really don’t. But he stepped into a position that’s been created and maintained by war hawks for years on end. Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Syria, Lybia, you name it, and the Military/industrials love it. No one, not anyone can step into a swamp that big and fertile, and change it in a year. It’s un possible. But I tend to think he’s going to try.

I hear everyone bashing on this Trump person every time he does something. But I don’t hear them bash the people that caused the situations that are making him act so apparently irrational. Trump didn’t give us 20 trillion in debt. Trump didn’t start any of the last 10 wars. Trump didn’t cause 47% of our citizens to have less than 10 grand in savings. Trump didn’t set up the deals that allowed China to send us half a trillion more than we send them.

But no one mentions that. They only mention how “crazy” he is when he says something that is different than the “same ole, same old”. Trump is sending China a message that the old ways are over and we need new ways. China’s not stupid, and they know they’ve ridden the US gravy train for years. There will be deals made, no question.

Well, we’ll see how it all shakes out, but one thing is sure, I’m going to have topics to write about for at least the next 3 years, if not 7!