International Forecaster Weekly

Two Things

Well maybe a few more than two. But first off, did you all see Biden promising 31 more tanks to Ukraine? I watched his 20 minute word salad speech and I was speechless.  They want this war to go on and on and on. They want all the spending they can squeeze out of this, and boy the money is flowing.

It took me a long time…over two hours. But I wanted to look up the first time I said that when the economy is in the toilet, they will spark a war, open the debt gates and spend their way out of the hole. Well it was all the way back during the NASDAQ meltdown, and sure enough, we went into Iraq over the BS of weapons of mass destruction. 20 years ago. I probably said it sometime in the 90’s also, but got tired of searching.

Once the war time spending hits, they can spend their way out of most recessions. Well, they’ve done it again. They set up the Ukraine since 2013 to be the area ( patsy) for the next multi billion dollar war spending spree. So it worked. They pushed and pushed Russia to the point where Putin did what any world leader would do…he snapped and pushed back.

That was and is the plan and the reason all these politicians are saying things like “what ever it takes” concerning helping Ukraine win. Listen folks, these people don’t give a rats ass about the Ukrainian people. They do like the Ukrainian chemicals, rare earths, and oil and gas…but the people? To the politicians they’re just as expendable as the people in Libya, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Palestine, and a hundred other places. Cannon fodder, nothing more. Oh and a good place to launder their millions of dollars…they do like that too.

But they’re playing a very dangerous game this time around. Russia isn’t Iraq or Libya. Russia isn’t Vietnam or Afghanistan. Russia is a very formidable opponent. So, while they’re all in on this  war because of the debt that the Central banks can create and the money that gets spent on more armaments…if it gets out of control, we are in WWIII, with the death and destruction that brings. War is a racket, as quoted by Gen. Smedly Butler so long ago. Well this is one of their biggest rackets ever. 

Okay, so lets me get back to market land. This coming week is yet another two day FOMC meeting, where they will determine what they’re going to do with interest rates. Then, on the second day of the meeting, Powell himself will give a Q&A press conference, where he’ll get asked 25 times “when are you going to pause and when are you going to cut rates.”  Both of which he will dance around in Fed speak. He’s not as good as Mumbles Greenspan, but he’s pretty deft at it.

Bob Rinear | January 27, 2023

Well maybe a few more than two. But first off, did you all see Biden promising 31 more tanks to Ukraine? I watched his 20 minute word salad speech and I was speechless.  They want this war to go on and on and on. They want all the spending they can squeeze out of this, and boy the money is flowing.

It took me a long time…over two hours. But I wanted to look up the first time I said that when the economy is in the toilet, they will spark a war, open the debt gates and spend their way out of the hole. Well it was all the way back during the NASDAQ meltdown, and sure enough, we went into Iraq over the BS of weapons of mass destruction. 20 years ago. I probably said it sometime in the 90’s also, but got tired of searching.

Once the war time spending hits, they can spend their way out of most recessions. Well, they’ve done it again. They set up the Ukraine since 2013 to be the area ( patsy) for the next multi billion dollar war spending spree. So it worked. They pushed and pushed Russia to the point where Putin did what any world leader would do…he snapped and pushed back.

That was and is the plan and the reason all these politicians are saying things like “what ever it takes” concerning helping Ukraine win. Listen folks, these people don’t give a rats ass about the Ukrainian people. They do like the Ukrainian chemicals, rare earths, and oil and gas…but the people? To the politicians they’re just as expendable as the people in Libya, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Palestine, and a hundred other places. Cannon fodder, nothing more. Oh and a good place to launder their millions of dollars…they do like that too.

But they’re playing a very dangerous game this time around. Russia isn’t Iraq or Libya. Russia isn’t Vietnam or Afghanistan. Russia is a very formidable opponent. So, while they’re all in on this  war because of the debt that the Central banks can create and the money that gets spent on more armaments…if it gets out of control, we are in WWIII, with the death and destruction that brings. War is a racket, as quoted by Gen. Smedly Butler so long ago. Well this is one of their biggest rackets ever. 

Okay, so lets me get back to market land. This coming week is yet another two day FOMC meeting, where they will determine what they’re going to do with interest rates. Then, on the second day of the meeting, Powell himself will give a Q&A press conference, where he’ll get asked 25 times “when are you going to pause and when are you going to cut rates.”  Both of which he will dance around in Fed speak. He’s not as good as Mumbles Greenspan, but he’s pretty deft at it.

I think it was 3 weeks ago already when I wrote the article “Chicken” and how the market is literally playing chicken with the feds. The Feds say there’s more rate hikes coming, they won’t end until terminal rates are over 5%, and once there, they’ll keep them there for some time… and the market doesn’t believe them. They’re convinced he’ll stop shy of 5, and won’t “keep them there” he'll panic pivot and cut them.

I get it. That has been the mode of operation for decades. So normalcy bias tells us in our minds, it has to play out the same way again. Now here’s the issue… it might. It could. The economy might fall bad enough that they go right back to their playbook of chickening out on being tough, go right to a pivot and cut rates back down. It is possible. Most think it’s probable and therein lies the problem.

I don’t much like it when too many people are all on the same side of the boat. In this instance of course what I’m suggesting is that maybe this time it is different and he does stick to his guns.

Just a few days ago, one  of the fed heads made a statement along the lines of how he sees that we might be in a period of economic pain that’s a little deeper and longer than most expect. Was he just jawboning and “wink, wink” they go right for the pivot? Or was he trying to tell you their plan?

Another interesting thing to ponder is this…When people like Powell say that the economy is going to remain sub par for longer than people might like and that “some amount of pain” will be expected…what’s the explanation for that? Well, the talking heads will tell you that he doesn’t want to make the mistake of pausing too soon, or cutting rates too soon, only to see inflation surge massively again and he’s got to rush back in and hike things again.

Okay, I get that. But what if it is “darker” than that? As I’ve mentioned too many times already, this is no longer a “normal” world. Just because the fed “always did that” doesn’t mean they’ve got to do it again. I’ve been a fed watcher since 1995, that’s almost 30 years ago. I’ve never once seen the fed head and some of his minions calling for hikes that induce pain. That my friends is a change.

In the past they always said they wanted to trim inflation, or cool the economy WITHOUT causing any pain, or imparting the least amount of pain possible. This time they’re telling you right to your face “Yeah, you’re going to endure a bit more pain than you’d expect, but sorry, we have to do it.” 

Why? So they don’t have to run back in and cut rates if inflation spikes? What’s the sin in that? Nothing. So maybe this time around, with the idiots of the WEF trying to get their one world order in place, maybe the banking cartels have told the central banks that inducing pain on the middle and lower class is fine this time around. Make them squeal a bit. Make them beg for relief.

Listen.. there’s one thing you absolutely have to know. We just had the Davos meeting with HUNDREDS of movers and shakers coming to listen to these idiots. Do you think the banks aren’t involved in their plans for 2030?? Do you think the banks are on your side, and would never do anything as sinister as helping wreck an economy, while telling you they’re helping? Don’t be so naïve. Central banks have financed wars for a thousand years, and helped destroy nations and kill millions.

The market will be on the edge of its seat. Algo’s will scan the written statement for the one sentence, or one word that’s changed in their outlook. Powell will be peppered incessantly to tell them when he’s done hiking and ready to pivot. They’ll be like crouched tigers itching to pounce on anything they can perceive as him going more Dovish.

Again, maybe he follows the old pattern and does go dovish. I’m skeptical. Why? Remember back in 2018 the fed tried to “get tough” and the market puked and they had to turn around really fast and resort to printing and cutting? I do. It was textbook, classic fed. But that was 2018. They weren’t ready to release Covid yet. The global plans for lockdowns, and travel restrictions and closing businesses wasn’t in place. Now things are different. Very different. Therefore, it isn’t “out there” to think that the fed response to the peon’s whining might end up being different too.

Just my two cents. We’ll see.