International Forecaster Weekly

Europe May Still Be In A Recession

The Times is bold to openly admit a dangerous truth: no matter what the data says, the economic elite are wary of returning to a “normal” economy because, quite frankly, people are easier to rule over when they're scared.

James Corbett | July 2, 2014

Did you see the news late last month? Apparently a major economic think tank spent a bunch of money on the best and the brightest minds in the economic world to come up with a new study exposing a stunning, underreported fact: Europe (may) still be in a recession. The New York Times picked up on the study, dutifully explaining the nuances and complexities for their perplexed readers:

“Is the European economy expanding, or is it in recession? Turns out, even the people whose job it is to decide aren’t sure. And their reasoning shows why the economic situation seems so perilous in Europe, even though its economy isn’t clearly shrinking. In fact, part of their hesitation to call the end of the recession stems from their fear that policy makers may not be sufficiently concerned about the state of the economy.”



The gist of the report is that the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London—a self-styled “Think-Net” of 700 leading economic researchers from universities across Europe—doesn't know how to interpret the tiny blip of growth data that we've seen coming out of the EU's official statistics in the past year. According to the official numbers, the Eurozone left recession in early 2013, attaining anemic growth rates of under 1% which they have so far managed to maintain. The problem, according to the CEPR, is that depending where the Euro goes from here this may be seen as the beginning of the end of Europe's woes or merely an extended pause in the continuing woes in the Old World.

But then theTimes being the cutting edge news publication that it is flips the script. The CEPR is being coy about saying the recession is over because “policy interventions are stronger in recessions, making large interventions politically more palatable.” In other words, as long as they are continuing to keep the panic levels up, the EU and ECB can have free rein to continue governing by crisis as they have been since (at least) the time of the Lehman collapse.

None of this will come as news to readers of the Forecaster, of course. We've been documenting the foregone conclusion of the death of the Euro since the days that Bob Chapman was at the helm. Europe's economy has not recovered, and that much is everywhere obvious. Despite the Greek Prime Minister's recent assurance that Greece is out of the frying pan, both the IMF and the EU seem to disagree; the IMF estimates the country will be running a 12.5 billion Euro deficit for the foreseeable future and earlier this year the EU was openly mulling extending Greece's loans to 50 years and cutting the interest on those loans as a type of bailout-that-isn't-a-bailout exercise. Meanwhile, a desperate ECB President Mario Draghi, unable to stimulate lending or reduce lending rates with a zero interest deposit rate for its banks, has gone nuclear, cutting rates to -0.1%. Joblessness remains at epidemic levels, with all of this Eurozone “recovery” failing to translate into the new jobs that are so desperately needed among Spain's 25.1% unemployed or Greece's 26.8%.

But the Times is bold to openly admit a dangerous truth: no matter what the data says, the economic elite are wary of returning to a “normal” economy because, quite frankly, people are easier to rule over when they're scared. The Times fails to say this, of course, but they come close to repeating Rahm Emanuel's famous dictum: “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” And if the EU just goes back to business as usual, then they will definitely have let this crisis go to waste. What they want, as James Paul Warburg so plainly told the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations in 1950, is world government. “The question is only whether world government will be achieved by consent or by conquest,” as he so chillingly warned. And in order to gain consent, they need to scare the public into submission.

The psychopolitics behind the Eurozone collapse are crystal clear to those willing to read between the lines and take the banking elite at their word. They want to build a stronger European Union with a central government and a more powerful central bank from the ashes of the current Eurozone. And if they have to keep people in a state of fear, the CEPR and similar institutions are happy to oblige. It's so obvious and so simple that even the New York Times is reporting it.

And Big Brother told Winston: “Be afraid...And trust us.”