International Forecaster Weekly

Claims of Recovery But Results Nowhere To Be Found

the public wants more than claims of recovery, a great loss in trust of the system, gold still the antithesis of money system, BofA troubles, naked shorting problem, businesses in the struggle to stay alive, shadow stats, bills are getting bigger.

Bob Chapman | September 8, 2010

The American public is alarmed at what they see going on. Most of them do not understand what has been done to them. The propaganda fed to them daily has them completely confused and that is understandable. They know the financial sector has been bailed out and they somehow have to pay the bill. They have been deceived and few of them want to admit it. They have been told their economy is in recovery, but improvement is nowhere to be found. Government tells them inflation is 1.6% when they know it’s certainly higher than that and has been for some time. The only beacon of light, if they can discover it, is the truth of talk radio and the Internet. Through these methods of communication the truth can be found and it is reaching all around the world.

The American and European banking sectors are generally insolvent and have been so now for a few years. Almost every day there are bank mergers you never hear about and more than 110 banks have gone under so far this year. Thousands of bank branches have disappeared and many unceremoniously have had name changes. The key to banking today is to carry two sets of books. One for the good assets and the other for the bad assets, as sanctioned by the Bank for International Settlements, the BIS, the governments in the US and Europe and the FASB. Most assets are marked to model, which means the bank determines their value arbitrarily, because no visible market exists for the assets. The bookkeeping is a travesty. The idea is to not let the public know how difficult and irreparable the situation really is. It is admitted that 829 banks are on a problem list, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. Failures should accelerate during the coming year. This loss of trust in the system is going to take its toll. Confidence will continue to wane as more and more pressure is brought up to bear versus dollar, which in turn will force gold higher, as it continues to reassert itself as the world’s only real currency. In the end it will spell failure for dollar denominated assets. That will finally bring recognition that the system has failed. This will bring great pressure on the banking system and some major banks will fail. This is why only enough cash should be kept in banks for three months expenses, or six months for businesses and in your safe at home along with your gold and silver coins and weapons, you should have $5,000 in small bills, for emergencies.

It is important to remember that this is part of a plan to nationalize the American banking system, so that it fits into the new National Socialist structure - the corporatist structure that members of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateralists and the Bilderbergs have planned for us. This national banking system is to be the key to future World Government, or a New World Order.

As that effort moves forward the Fed is just short of two years of zero interest rates, a policy that they cannot easily change. If they raise rates at this juncture or stop increasing money and credit the bottom will fall out of the economy. These are the only methods they have of keeping the system alive. The Fed struggles to keep the ship afloat knowing this may be the last time this Band-Aid solution will work. The bubbles that were created, like in real estate, is in its fifth year of decline. Next will be bonds, the stock market and with them insurance companies and retirement plans. Looking at the scene objectively everything the Fed has thus far done has been a failure. A good part of the public is aware of all this and they seethe with anger. Just consider all the unemployed over 40, who will never have a job again and if they do become employed the wage will be ½ to 1/3 of what they once earned. We get letters every day describing the plight of the average American.

Bailing out the financial system hasn’t worked. The loans and special deals have only covered up the crimes these corporations were involved in and allowed them to escape bankruptcy, which they so richly deserve. There is no other way to describe what has transpired in the financial community than welfare for the mega rich. What is worse is that they go right on looting the public as if nothing has happened.

That brings us to the antithesis, which is gold.

We are sure you all remember the supposed swap of 349 tons of gold between commercial banks and the BIS, the Bank for International Settlements. Commercial banks usually work through central banks that represent them at the BIS; thus, this was an unusual procedure, only discovered when someone picked up a footnote in the BIS statement. Making the event more sinister was that there were no BIS official announcement and that the BIS refused to name the banks involved. This is similar to the Fed refusing to divulge to whom they lent $12.8 trillion. We believe these swaps terminate in January, so we anxiously wait to see what the conclusion will be. Will the gold be redeemed or will it become the property of the BIS, or will the swap terms be extended? We guess the real question is were those who did the swap gold bullion banks? Was the public sale of gold by the IMF a factor? Remember the IMF swore they would never dump gold on the open market, but yet they did just that. Adding to the mystery is that the BIS have seldom used gold swaps in recent years. Due to the secrecy involved we tilt toward a billion-bank bailout. In addition we saw fully qualified buyers rejected and gold sold into the market by the IMF. There can be only one reason for that and that is gold price suppression. As it has turned out every time the IMF sells the Russians go into the market and buy it. We also remember a similar episode in the late 1990s when Gordon Brown, the British Treasury Secretary, sold off half of England’s gold at about $275.00 an ounce to bail out London bullion banks.

For those who have an interest in gold they should be paying close attention to gold and silver shares. As of late they have been moving up strongly. Some eight to 20 percent depending on which indicator you watch. The tenor of the market has changed decidedly over the past several months. We could well be experiencing a renewal of share influence. Up until our government decided to manipulate gold and silver, bullion, share prices always led bullion.

We believe this renewal is being led by several factors. The triumph of gold as the only world currency as witnessed over the past 16 months; the use of massive amounts of money and credit in QE1, and now at the beginnings of QE2, which will have equally bad results; trillions of dollars being stolen by those in and around government; the realization that gold and silver production have fallen; the lack of affect of massive naked net shorts in the bullion pits and the LBMA and Comex and the multitude of naked shorts in the shares, all of which have failed to deter higher prices. Higher inflation is on the way, thus $1,600 gold looks very probable this year and $3,000 next year.

Historically September sees higher gold prices 81% of the time. Between now and the end of February gold and silver should do very well. Silver is poised to soon break out to $25.00 or higher. We are also about to see a parting of the ways in gold and silver versus commodities, just like we began to see between the US dollar and gold. In the future gold and silver will be assisted by a major fall in confidence in the Federal Reserve, which is already underway. Their failure to produce a recovery with $2.5 trillion that they injected into the system, along with the administration, has not sat well in the business world. Now the Fed is beginning another $2.5 trillion rescue, which may end up being $5 trillion. Monetary expansion and monetization means higher inflation, which means higher gold and silver prices. As you see in this issue the administration is going to mark mortgages to the market and rewrite new loans. That will add to more monetary expansion. In fact it may be part of the QE2. Word is that this program could put $50 billion into consumer’s hands to spend, which the taxpayer would be on the hook for. We also estimate, even with the programs, 40% to 50% would go into foreclosures.

Rumors reach us that Bank of America was in serious trouble in July and had the Fed not poured in funds the bank would have failed. We described earlier in the year why BofA had such problems; it had been a dumping ground for the Fed. It now looks like the bank may be dismembered with the biggest and best pieces going to JPM and GS.

We are also getting disturbing reports that some kind of secret rules regarding gold and silver bullion. It seems that naked shorting has become a major problem. It may be the only way they can neutralize the problem; and that is to seize bullion accounts to cover their shorts. We are sure holders will be compensated, but they’ll lose their positions and have to buy them back somehow. We just saw the Swiss government and the banking community rollover for imperial America, so it is conceivable that they would pull something like this. Forewarned is forearmed. That is why we always recommend taking physical delivery if possible. All banks and governments are no longer to be trusted.

Second quarter GDP was 1.6%, we had predicted 1.5% months ago. As we forecast the third and fourth quarters will be dreadful, probably between minus 1 and plus 1. The quantitative easy is not coming fast enough; banks finally trying to lend to small and medium businesses, which create 70% of the jobs has had only moderate success and the new US government mark-to-market bailout of mortgage holders won’t affect the market until next year. Adjusting payments by bringing loans down will push $50 billion into the economy will only create more debt and still 40% to 50% of homeowners will fall into foreclosure. Without jobs there can be no solution.

Worse yet, corporate earnings for 2011 should be flat.

Unemployment still is going nowhere although recent numbers on the face were not all that had. Of the 67,000 in job growth 10,000 was the result of the end of a construction strike. A figure government loves to hide is those forced into part-time employment by an additional 331,000, which certainly keeps the figure close to 10 million. In case you didn’t notice all the gains were part-timers – hours worked were flat. Manufacturing lost 27,000 jobs. In April the diffusion index was 68 and in August it was 53. Probably the most important figure of all U6 rose in August to 16.7% from 16.5% in July, as real unemployment after taking out the birth/death ratio rose again to 21-3/8%. This news should keep wage increases flat to slightly higher.

Retail was all over the place in distortion. There were jobless benefits that were released to those that had previously been cut off, and there were 17 states implementing tax holidays that added 2% to overall sales.

The Conference Index fell to 24.9 in August from 26.4 in July. We won’t quote the ISM manufacturing Index because we do not believe it. It was statistically impossible for it to be where it was reported to be. All employment increases were in the private service sectors in health and education, which was statistically impossible as well. We find no confusion, just more lies. The economy is slowing and it’s as simple as that. Productivity was dismal at a minus 1.8%; normal is plus 2.5%. This will negatively affect profit margins as labor costs grow 1.1% and that will force up prices and inflation. As far as GDP growth is concerned we are back to the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 officially. Who knows what the real numbers are. The momentum is gone and if it is to be regained QE2 had best come fast and furious. The loss of traction is now close to where it was when Lehman was destroyed, but 20% to 40% higher than other unfortunate events took place. The difference is the slowdown has been stealth and there has been no panic and no negative events. Such an event would bring the economy down to some of the worst levels in the last dozen years.

After seeing new home sales on an adjusted seasonal basis we suspect they are not correct. The unadjusted numbers fell 7% and that is hard to reconcile. We see no shift in direction. The coming mortgage giveaway will only delay the inevitable for a year or two. It is certainly no solution. Coming in September it amounts to cheap political pandering at the expense of all American taxpayers.

Business sees what we see and it does what it has to do to stay alive. You might call it a state of neutrality as business again dries up and more small and medium-sized businesses fall by the wayside. Owners are sick and tired of more regulations and taxes and idiotic car and appliance programs that do not work. They just steal future sales. The passing of the healthcare reform with onerous rules, additional taxes and confusion haven’t helped. The disagreements over the extension of the Bush tax cut renewals don’t help, especially with the President vowing to kill them. Then how dumb can rewriting underwater loans be? It’s just another temporary solution to aid the financial sector. Most small businesses will pay the fine and opt out of health care for employees completely, leaving valued employees at the mercy of the government and socialized medicine, as 25% of doctors, dentists and other professionals either retire or leave the country. We saw the same thing happen in England in the 1950s. Why would businesses expand and hire under these woeful circumstances? They know real growth is zero.

We know tariffs on goods and services would turn everything around, but our House and Senate have been purchased by the New World Order crowd that want America and Europe on their knees financially and economically so the public will be forced to accept a corporate fascist world government. Free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing have been in full swing for 20 years and the damage done to the American economy has been incalculable. The only way the system can be saved before it crashes is for the system to be purged. The financial sector and others have to be allowed to go into bankruptcy and if they are not eventually chaos and revolution will ensue. Yes, we know that financial sector controls the government, so won’t voluntarily allow that to happen. That is why the November election is so important. All the incumbents have to be swept from Congress. Even removing half of these purchased criminals would give us a chance to heal the system. Without that there is little hope of a positive solution. At least you have been forewarned and at least you can protect what assets you have left by being invested in gold and silver related assets. It is all a sad commentary on our country and its citizens.

In addition, we found it illuminating that Sir Alan Greenspan, an Illuminist, is working with the Paulson Group advising them on monetary matters, money supply and gold prices. This is the same elitist who got us into this mess in the first place, at the direction of his controllers. Quantitative easing one and now quantitative easing 2 should cause inflation to surge and in that process gold and silver will surge as well. That has to be a reason why Greenspan is selling his services. That is to make sure Paulson understands the relationship created by the Fed, which is the creation of massive amounts of money and credit, overall monetary policy, inflation and hyperinflation and the prices of gold and silver.

The bottom line is the Illuminists, the Fed and Greenspan are advocating purchasing gold. The Fed as we have said so often has no other alternative but to reflate. This is the final stamp of approval on designating gold the only real world currency, which we have strongly forecasted for the past 16 months. They realize they have lost control of the dollar, finances and the economy. Gold is reassuming its rightful place as the only world currency.