So trading the first year of the Trump presidency tends to boil down to this: Do you think Trump can perform the miracle he's promising...? If so, then invest away! If not, then you might have another year or two left before the chickens that were hatched by the Fed in 2008 start coming home to roost.
...don't worry, everyone, the wizards of Wall Street are currently positioning themselves for one last melt-up before the whole thing goes down, so there may yet be time to squeeze another few meaningless points out of this stock market rally.
The greater fool theory states that the price of an object is determined not by its intrinsic value, but rather by irrational beliefs and expectations of market participants.
My point is this folks. Predicting the future with any accuracy is a tough game even when you have rock solid, 100% true current information. Trying to do it while being lied to on just about every topic imaginable is a recipe for defeat.
When does that stop? How does it stop? Does it have to stop? Logic says yes it will indeed end. But I’ll be damned if I know just how. We have already seen so many impossible things, that I can’t wait to see the next one. Get your popcorn and watch the show.
...do the powers that be “want” the market to go to 50K? What would be the point of that? few that I can really see. Sure, it will make the top 5% a whole lot of money, but for the tens of millions that don’t have any way to own stocks…it won’t do a thing for them.
So, if we’re getting some late stage run for glory which sends us ever higher, I don’t buy for a moment that it’s the general population finally diving in. I could however see it being the bankers printing even more than they acknowledge they are.
pundits of today, are spewing the same crap they spewed in the 1999 market madness. Overvaluation didn’t matter they said because they were all going to make so much money in this “Internet thing”.
There are many questions surrounding the development of this technology that poses an existential threat to humanity, but most people are too busy worrying about whether computers can have a soul to address these concerns.
We’re still leaning long, but keeping position size a bit lower than normal. So far it’s been working for us nicely, and I figure it should continue for a while. But as we get closer to the December rate hike from the Fed’s, I think there’s going to be a bit of nervousness out there, and that could shake some trees.
There are all sorts of options plays you can have fun with. I suggest that 90% of the people should stay with the absolute basics of trading options, and that simply means buying call options if you think a stock is going to rise. It means buying a put option if you think the stock is going to fall.
What these latest headlines speak to is the fact that investors who have been riding the waves of BOJ-fueled euphoria in the rising Japanese stock market are now freaking out that the central banksters are getting ready to take away (as even CNBC calls it) the "punch bowl" of central bank funny money.
...selling naked puts is a very profitable thing to do if you are right in your assumptions of where the stock is heading. If the trade goes sour though...you will lose money quickly.