International Forecaster Weekly

The Charging World

What people don’t seem to understand is that all the incredible things that we have, were made by and because of capitalism, and the freedom to invent things. If the market demanded it, people would make it. AAPL didn’t make cell phones to show off their engineering prowess, they made phones because people with money wanted to buy them. It’s terribly easy to understand. Unless of course you’re a  20 year old college kid, wearing 150 dollar sneaks, sporting a 200 dollar leather jacket, wearing 70 dollar jeans, talking on a 1000 dollar phone, going to a 70grand a year school, while eating 5 meals a day. Then you’re oppressed and/or suppressed. Offended by everything, and obviously the world is unkind to you. Somehow. Oh, and it all needs to be fixed. Because of, well, some reason.

Bob Rinear | March 10, 2021

We are in what I consider to be incredible times, and yet such dangerous times. As far as dangerous goes, I’m talking about the societal change toward socialism, which is simply 101 toward graduating into communism. The cancel culture is insanity on steroids, the things that seem to offend people are so petty, that I don’t know how they live.

What people don’t seem to understand is that all the incredible things that we have, were made by and because of capitalism, and the freedom to invent things. If the market demanded it, people would make it. AAPL didn’t make cell phones to show off their engineering prowess, they made phones because people with money wanted to buy them. It’s terribly easy to understand. Unless of course you’re a  20 year old college kid, wearing 150 dollar sneaks, sporting a 200 dollar leather jacket, wearing 70 dollar jeans, talking on a 1000 dollar phone, going to a 70grand a year school, while eating 5 meals a day. Then you’re oppressed and/or suppressed. Offended by everything, and obviously the world is unkind to you. Somehow. Oh, and it all needs to be fixed. Because of, well, some reason.

Over the years I’ve mentioned so many times about how great it would be if we could indeed be an all electric world. But I’m a realist about it. I understand that right now, we are not far from having an “oh crap” moment. When’s that? When everyone on your block plugs in their Tesla, or Nio, or what have you and all the power lines melt and transformers blow. We simply do not have the infrastructure to support the coming waves of EV’s and AAV’s, etc. We don’t. Think of Texas just a month ago. No power for days on end. From a storm. Imagine 2 million EV’s trying to get plugged in.

Another oh crap moment is going to come in the form of tax shortfalls to create and maintain roads. Right now, every gallon of gasoline you buy for your car, carries a tax on it, and that tax is used to help build roads, and bridges, to do repair work and clean ups. As more and more people, use less and less gas, states are going to realize their budgets are breaking. There’s no money to pave those roads, build those bridges and what have you.

I’m all on board with the idea of solar, and I’ve said so a million times. Our problem is that we simply haven’t found the right technology yet to produce it without destroying the environment to make the components. But the fact still remains that the very sun that rises each day, sends more photons of light energy than all the energy human life uses in a hundred years. That energy is free, we just have to learn how to harness it, like plants have.

Yet because we’re still a capitalist society ( for now anyway) people will still invent insanely cool new things, because the market wants them. There’s an outfit called Solar Window technologies, that has been working for over 10 years to produce an organic, see through “coating” that generates electricity from anything you cover with it. Oh, and check this, it produces electricity from ANY light source, not just the sun. It doesn’t have to point to the sun, it will absorb the photons of light, just from reflected light. Amazing stuff.

So despite the FACT that we’re going to have “oh crap” moments as we continue to overload our electrical grid, the things folks are developing simply astound me. As you probably guessed, my utopia would be a way of harvesting all that sunshine, and without harming the environment, capture it, to fuel up an electric vehicle that had tremendous range. Well guess what? There’s a little outfit called Aptera, and they say they are launching an EV that goes for 1000 miles on a charge. But wait it gets better. Because the car is covered in solar panels, you may never have to plug it in again.

They do it by using carbon fiber for beams and structure, saving enormously on weight. They use an ultra efficient electric motor, and they’ve designed it to have the lowest air resistance of any vehicle. Yes it looks odd to some folks, but if they pull this off, it’s a true game changer. Take a peek at them here:

https://www.aptera.us/

Moving along, there’s some incredibly interesting things going on in the aerial space concerning electric vehicles, and ‘air taxi’s”  EH for instance is a Chinese company that has created an air taxi that can hold four people.  Take a peek at this video, and tell me that’s not cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugkVrrr8I-4

This here is their page, showing the recent test flights, and passenger trials.

https://www.youtube.com/c/EHANG/videos

By the way EH is a publicly traded company and one wonders if this is worth a look at as an investment? While I’m leery of Chinese companies because frankly we’re in a form of cold war with them, that one day could go hot over things like Taiwan and the South China Sea, if one is trusting and brave…

The reason I am showing you EH is to introduce you to something closer to home. Much closer. The idea of air taxis isn’t just some Chinese idea. We’ve got companies here in the states that have been working on the idea for a decade. In my opinion, the best of show is Joby.

They’ve got first mover advantage, they’ve got a huge production deal with Toyota, and guess what? They’re going public via what you’d consider a SPAC deal with RTP. Check them out here:

https://www.jobyaviation.com/

It’s got 150 mile range, can go 200 mph, cost 25% of what a helicopter ride would cost, and it’s got big name investors and business partners. Granted it’s not slated to start doing anything until 2024, but my my it seems very interesting to me. With RTP trading at about 10.70, it’s right at the 10 dollar PIPE pricing.

Second runner up is archer aviation. They have a compelling story also, as they’re making an “urban commuter” that can go 60 miles at 150 mph, for town hopping.

https://www.archer.com/

They’re also going public, merging with ACIC, and like Joby/RTP, the stock is trading around the PIPE price at 10.

Are any of these attractive investments? Well yeah, sort of. Which brings me full circle to the dilemma we have concerning where our society is headed. As long as capitalism is allowed to flourish, there will be more Joby’s and Archers, and competition will lower prices, etc. But the way the “progressives” want the world, these sorts of innovations are going to be stifled.

These would indeed be “long term holds” in my estimation. But what do things look like 2 years from now, 3 years? Frankly, the future worries me. Sure the Feds are printing money like mad to prop up the markets and thus the economy. But from where I stand, we don’t have a rule of law anymore in the US. The Supreme court backing away from 19 states asking to review the election, simply means rigging them is fine, evidently.

It’s a fantastic time, and a very troubling time at the same time. Democratic Socialists" are preaching this message to college students and millions of Americans: "We should be socialist because it's working in Sweden and Norway."

Growing organizations like the Young Democratic Socialists of America (YDSA) claim these countries are "proof" that socialism will work for America.

And millions believe them. Despite not understanding a damn thing about the reality of the Scandinavian nations. They’re not socialists like our profound idiots want, they’re capitalists with a propensity towards social safety nets. Denmark ranks as the 8th most economically free country in The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom, which cites free-market policies and regulatory efficiency as reasons for the high standard of living. Sweden is ranked 22nd and Norway 28th, both with similar descriptions of thriving private sectors and open markets.

These three countries are clearly not operating under centrally planned economies, or their economic freedom scores would be significantly lower.

The reality is Cuba and Venezuela. And these brainless, coddled youngsters don’t understand that. So, when I see Aptera building a 1K mile car, or Joby making electric vertical take off electric commuters, I’m thankful for the innovations that we’ve discovered by being a capitalist society. Let’s hope and pray that things remain normal enough to see even more exciting innovations. Yet I fret……