While I will never in my life forget that evening, most people don’t realize that we see magic performed almost daily in the equity market and the economic reporting systems... on Tuesday we watched a transformation just as astounding as the girl that turned into a tiger in front of my eyes 35 years ago. I’m talking about the jobs reporting.
Many many years ago, so long ago that I wasn’t even married yet, I found myself in New York with a girlfriend doing some “shopping” for supplies. Way back then in the very early 80’s I was in the jewelry business, running a repair shop and a few retail operations. So we had gone to 47th street and met my suppliers, and then wandered off to a small Italian restaurant that we liked to frequent.
Just as we were entering the bistro, a man posted an advertisement poster for a “one night only magic show” to be held in the village and we decided that would be a really fun thing to go see. So we had a nice meal, and cabbed our way down to the theatre where this show would be held. Once there, we paid our admission and got in to find a seat. It was a very small venue, it couldn’t have seated more than about 100 people. We had a tremendous view of the small stage, but then…everyone did, it was that small.
Evidently they had gotten together to do a few practice performances for a really big “magic convention” that was coming up and this was simply one of their practice runs. We settled in and began to become amazed. We saw some incredible illusions that night. I even volunteered for one act with 3 other folks from the crowd, and sure enough the guy not only picked my pocket and had my wallet, he got my watch too. I never felt either one leave me, as he distracted us with the “magic trick” he was doing. I felt pretty humbled when he gave us all back our belongings. None of us had seen him do it, nor felt our stuff leaving. Amazing talent.
While I will never in my life forget that evening, as it was so impressive seeing these masters of the time doing their act in a place so small they had to “work around you”, most people don’t realize that we see magic performed almost daily in the equity market and the economic reporting systems. In fact on Tuesday we watched a transformation just as astounding as the girl that turned into a tiger in front of my eyes 35 years ago. I’m talking about the jobs reporting.
One of the biggest headaches for Obama and his pet achievement of Obama care is that in droves companies have decided that if they’re going to go broke giving this mandated health care to their full time employees, they’ll simply only hire part timers and they’ll cut back their regular staff from 40 to 29 hours. So as hard as he tried to tell us this wasn’t happening, and that everyone loves his program and it’s helping the jobs situation, anyone with a living brain cell knew that over and over the only jobs being filled were part time, and hundreds of companies had slashed full timers to 29.5 hours.
Yet according to Obama and especially Mark Zandi the puppet they drag on CNBC every time there’s a jobs report; his constant line of BS is that if Obama care was really pushing folks toward part time only, it would show up in the “data”. Over and over we’ve heard this from him, despite headlines almost weekly of yet another company either cutting healthcare altogether or cutting their people to part time. But on Tuesday the producers must have had a brain fart, because they had on as a guest, Bob Funk from Express Employment Professionals. This guys is an ex Fed head and runs this employment company and he simply ripped Zandi apart, and did it in such a calm soothing manner, Zandi didn’t even realize he’d just been “given the business”.
Bob said “I don’t know where the BLS gets it’s numbers or why the part timers aren’t showing up in the data because here in the real world, we’re seeing part time up 123% and years ago the companies hiring through us was 60% for full time workers and 40 for part time. Now it’s exactly reversed, 40% looking for full time, 60% looking for part time. Obama care is indeed affecting business and jobs.”
It was fun to watch this man gently correct our agenda driven Zandi robot, as he did it with much class. But the real “magic” didn’t come from Zandi being schooled on TV, that was simply a well deserved bonus. The Grand illusion that would have made any one of those magicians I mentioned earlier feel inadequate was the BLS’s shell game with the jobs data. While the establishment survey which is the non farm payroll report we get each month came out “in the ball park of reality” with a gain of 148K jobs, it was the “household” survey where the most outrageous illusion ever put to paper was recorded.
According to the BLS; last month a RECORD 595,000 people were rotated OUT of part time work and into Full time positions at their company, AND on top of that another 133K jobs full time jobs were filled.
Think about that for a moment folks. This was September. Every CEO on the planet was worried sick about the Fed beginning to Taper the QE. They were upset about the Debt Ceiling approaching and if they’d push us over that cliff. They were nervous about the Government shut down. And yet they were so full of love for their employees, that they graciously let 600K of them go from under 29 hours a week to full time. In one month. In THAT month. Right ahead of the launch of the Obama Care web site debacle. You always have to remember that famous quote from Joseph Stalin concerning the outcome of data. He said it isn’t important who votes, what is important is who counts the votes. In jobs land, the BLS counts them. Any way they seem fit.
Folks you’ve just seen a magic trick that knows no equal. Obama needed to get that negative news out of the data, and “just like that” it disappeared. All it took was one phone call, one wink, one nod and “presto” gone! No more part time jobs problem. And yet this is the crap, the garbage the stench that we’re supposed to base sound investing ideas upon. Well you cannot. Years ago they said the earth was flat. Then it was found to be round. Now it’s “crooked”. Everything you see or hear out of our so called Government leaders is agenda driven lies.
Obama care promotes part time low paying jobs. Period. He can hide the data, he can hide the news and his flunkies at CNBC and the rest of the main stream press can cover for him. But on the street, you all know the deal. Full time with bennies is getting as hard to find as the proverbial hens teeth. Part time service jobs are indeed a dime a dozen. He told us he wanted to “fundamentally change America” and he’s doing a fine job of it. He’s changing it to a third world nation. Bravo.