International Forecaster Weekly

When It Sucks To Be Right

When you’ve been writing articles for as long as I have, and in some (many) of them you make predictions, you know you will win some and lose some. You simply hope to win more than you lose.

My thesis on inflation and the Fed has been right unfortunately. Some of the catchy little phrases I’ve used is “it’s different this time” and I’ve gone to great lengths to suggest that this current fed, is NOT going to be bullied by the market.

In fact, one of the more comical things I’ve seen in the last 3 months has been the so called “experts” on the market, explaining how the Fed MUST pivot towards cutting rates, and how they most certainly will. Yet time after time, whether it’s Powell, or Mester, or Bullard or whomever…they simply say “higher for longer.”  And then the experts go off in a huff and a puff.

The world we live in right now, is crazier than at any time in my life. We, (Humanity) is being attacked as never before. I mention the WEF ( World Economic Forum) a lot, because in years past the globalist scumbags tried to keep their plans secret. From the Club of Rome, the Builderbergers, the CFR, etc, all kept their dirty little agenda’s hidden from the public. But not Satan-Klaus and his band. They tell you right to your face how much they hate you and want you dead.

Hey at LEAST they’re telling you the truth. They are all in on population reduction, eliminating your choice of food, what kind of travel you can or can’t do, taking over your healthcare, setting up 15 minute cities, eliminating dairy farms, cattle ranches and on and on. Right in your face.

But other than them, 99.9% of everything else you’re told is pure BS. Safe and effective comes to mind. Or Trump was a Russian plant, or we didn’t blow up the Nordstream pipeline, or Iraq having WMD’s, or Russia had no incentive to invade Ukraine, or Russia is paving the way to conquer Europe, or there’s 89 genders, or ivermectin is dangerous and doesn’t work,  or, or, or, or etc ad-infinitum. You get it. Everything’s a lie.

So, if everything is a lie ( amazingly except what the WEF says they want to do to you) it’s awful hard to figure out fact from fiction. The gift of discernment is very important in trying to understand the ultimate goals of the various agenda’s.

When it comes to the Fed and hiking rates, I am on the record in these pages back  in March of last year, as saying that inflation would be more than people expected, and last longer than people expected and that the fed was going to use rate hikes to fight this inflation. Oh, and just so you understand, my theory is that they’re using inflation as the cover for rate hikes.

Bob Rinear | February 24, 2023

When you’ve been writing articles for as long as I have, and in some (many) of them you make predictions, you know you will win some and lose some. You simply hope to win more than you lose.

My thesis on inflation and the Fed has been right unfortunately. Some of the catchy little phrases I’ve used is “it’s different this time” and I’ve gone to great lengths to suggest that this current fed, is NOT going to be bullied by the market.

In fact, one of the more comical things I’ve seen in the last 3 months has been the so called “experts” on the market, explaining how the Fed MUST pivot towards cutting rates, and how they most certainly will. Yet time after time, whether it’s Powell, or Mester, or Bullard or whomever…they simply say “higher for longer.”  And then the experts go off in a huff and a puff.

The world we live in right now, is crazier than at any time in my life. We, (Humanity) is being attacked as never before. I mention the WEF ( World Economic Forum) a lot, because in years past the globalist scumbags tried to keep their plans secret. From the Club of Rome, the Builderbergers, the CFR, etc, all kept their dirty little agenda’s hidden from the public. But not Satan-Klaus and his band. They tell you right to your face how much they hate you and want you dead.

Hey at LEAST they’re telling you the truth. They are all in on population reduction, eliminating your choice of food, what kind of travel you can or can’t do, taking over your healthcare, setting up 15 minute cities, eliminating dairy farms, cattle ranches and on and on. Right in your face.

But other than them, 99.9% of everything else you’re told is pure BS. Safe and effective comes to mind. Or Trump was a Russian plant, or we didn’t blow up the Nordstream pipeline, or Iraq having WMD’s, or Russia had no incentive to invade Ukraine, or Russia is paving the way to conquer Europe, or there’s 89 genders, or ivermectin is dangerous and doesn’t work,  or, or, or, or etc ad-infinitum. You get it. Everything’s a lie.

So, if everything is a lie ( amazingly except what the WEF says they want to do to you) it’s awful hard to figure out fact from fiction. The gift of discernment is very important in trying to understand the ultimate goals of the various agenda’s.

When it comes to the Fed and hiking rates, I am on the record in these pages back  in March of last year, as saying that inflation would be more than people expected, and last longer than people expected and that the fed was going to use rate hikes to fight this inflation. Oh, and just so you understand, my theory is that they’re using inflation as the cover for rate hikes.

What, you ask??  Let’s go back to discussing how different things are today, then they were as recently as 2019.  Pre 2019 was it common for a bioweapon to be set free on us? Was it normal to have your businesses shut down, and forced to get an experimental jab to go to work? Was it normal to have trains full of toxins crash a year after a movie depicting it to happen, and then setting it on fire, creating more toxins like Dioxin? Was it normal for over 135 food processing plants to blow up or burn down? Normal to shut down 15000 Dutch farmers and take their land? Was it normal to wipe out over half the Chicken populations? Normal to blow up a pipeline that aids your so called ally?

I could go on for ever with this. But the bottom line of course is that this is a very different world, where the globalist/communist/evildoers have come out swinging at every level. They’re firing all their guns at the same time. In other words, what was…. Was,  and what is, is….now.  The word is different now. Yet the market thinks the fed will do what it always has.

You all know I’ve been writing about this for weeks and weeks. The globalists have a plan for the “US and that’s to decapitate the middle class. Well, I hate to break it to you all, but the Fed is part of the globalist cabal.

They don’t need to raise rates to stop inflation, because it won’t work. Most of our inflation has come from too much money, not too much demand. When you have your Congress passing trillion dollar spending bills, when you are doling out gabillions to the Military complex, and you still have supply chain issues, THAT is your inflation.

Yet they’re going to hike rates and hike rates and hike rates. Why? Who does it hurt? Do higher rates hurt the banks? Not even a little, they make more money. Credit card issuers? They get to make more. The ones that get crushed are the middle class. The people that want to buy a house, or buy a car. The person that wants to take his family vacation and always pays with time on his Credit card. The small business that needs a loan for equipment.

That my friends is who gets crushed over high rates. So let me ask you, are the Feds hiking rates to stop inflation, or are they hiking rates because their lords and masters from Brussels has said “While they’re still reeling from what we did to them with Covid, now put the squeeze on them with higher rates?”

Only you can make that judgement call. But for me, it’s plain as day. If rate hikes worked… then how could Friday’s PCE come in so high?? They’ve been hiking rates for 11 months. One might think that going from virtually zero to 4.5% would be enough to cripple inflation, no?  No.

Am I saying hiking rates never halts inflation? No, fact is if you hike them high enough you will indeed crush demand to the point where no one can afford to buy anything and then inflation stops. But in the process you bring on a crushing recession/depression. This way, they can hike rates, hurt the middle class, use the “sticky inflation” as the cover for more and more rates, and not be the scapegoat when things blow up.  Very sad. Very evil. Very true.

As far as the market goes, here’s my feeling about things. Friday’s PCE gives the fed even the green light to do a 50 basis point hike in a few weeks. I’m not sure that they will or not, I’m thinking no they’ll stick with 25…again they want to cook us slowly, over time. But the hawkishness will be brutal.

Now we’ really haven’t seen the full effects of all the previous rate hikes. Usually those don’t trickle down for anywhere from 6 months to 18 months. So we’re going to get the double whammy of delayed reaction, along with new hikes, coupled with earnings that for most sectors wasn’t very good.

Some people think that the fed will have to pivot, because they’re hiking rates to where our treasury is going to be paying out more than it takes in. Well Duh. Aren’t we 32 trillion in debt? Yep. Do they plan on paying ANY of that back? Nope, they’re going to default on all of it at some point.

I’ve told you all many times that when empires get in real trouble they start wars. We’ve been in deep trouble since 08/09 and they conjured up this war in 2012 – 2014 in Ukraine. In all probability, we are indeed going to be in a true WWIII situation, and late 2024 into 2025 looks like a likely time.

So, my guess is that unless something really major changes…Like an end to the war and an end to Russian sanctions, and peace between China and Taiwan, this market is on a slow ride lower.  Do I think there’s any chance of peace with Ukraine/Russia? There’s always a “chance” of anything. But no, the reality is that the west wanted this war, they got this war, and they’re not going to stop this war. Biden remarked just Thursday again that we’re with Ukraine “no matter what”  and rejoiced by Kamal for “as long as it takes.”

It won’t go straight down, there will be many bear bounces, but overall, I believe the market will be lower over the next few months. It’s not an attractive environment, so good luck out there.