For all intents and purposes, the 2024 presidential election campaign is off and running.
In fact, some pundits say it started the day after the midterm congressional elections two months ago. Others say Donald Trump lit the fuse a week later when he announced another run for political gold.
And now, former South Carolina governor – and Trump’s ambassador to the UN – Niki Haley has announced. And former President Trump has already dubbed his presumed toughest Republican competitor, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, as “Meatball Ron.”
On the democratic side, virtually all of America is waiting for President Joe Biden to officially announce his candidacy for reelection – after a bully pulpit-like State of the Union address last week.
Thus, once again, with so much policy, legal action and geopolitical volatility in flux, Americans will soon face another spirited debate over not just who we should vote for but how we even should choose our presidents.
To Campaign or Not to Campaign
One thing is certain, however: 41 states and the District of Columbia are already in the bag for either the 2024 Republican or Democratic presidential nominee.
Why? Because of the state-by-state, winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes for president and vice president. Remember, 270 or more electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
According to the National Popular Vote, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization (NPV), the Republican nominee can count on 218 electoral votes from 24 states (red on the map above).
The Democratic nominee can count on just about the same – 211 electoral votes from 17 states and DC (blue on the map).
NPV says the 2024 campaign will be concentrated in just 9 states (yellow on the map), which (together with one competitive congressional district in Maine and in Nebraska) have a combined total of 109 electoral votes.
Close analysis shows that presidential candidates only campaign in closely divided states where they have something to gain or lose. In practice, this has meant that the candidates are separated by no more than eight percentage points in polls.
Because Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are no longer in this competitive range, the number of spectator states will reach a high of 41 in 2024.
By Dave Allen for Discount Gold & Silver
For all intents and purposes, the 2024 presidential election campaign is off and running.
In fact, some pundits say it started the day after the midterm congressional elections two months ago. Others say Donald Trump lit the fuse a week later when he announced another run for political gold.
And now, former South Carolina governor – and Trump’s ambassador to the UN – Niki Haley has announced. And former President Trump has already dubbed his presumed toughest Republican competitor, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, as “Meatball Ron.”
On the democratic side, virtually all of America is waiting for President Joe Biden to officially announce his candidacy for reelection – after a bully pulpit-like State of the Union address last week.
Thus, once again, with so much policy, legal action and geopolitical volatility in flux, Americans will soon face another spirited debate over not just who we should vote for but how we even should choose our presidents.
To Campaign or Not to Campaign
One thing is certain, however: 41 states and the District of Columbia are already in the bag for either the 2024 Republican or Democratic presidential nominee.
Why? Because of the state-by-state, winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes for president and vice president. Remember, 270 or more electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
According to the National Popular Vote, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization (NPV), the Republican nominee can count on 218 electoral votes from 24 states (red on the map above).
The Democratic nominee can count on just about the same – 211 electoral votes from 17 states and DC (blue on the map).
NPV says the 2024 campaign will be concentrated in just 9 states (yellow on the map), which (together with one competitive congressional district in Maine and in Nebraska) have a combined total of 109 electoral votes.
Close analysis shows that presidential candidates only campaign in closely divided states where they have something to gain or lose. In practice, this has meant that the candidates are separated by no more than eight percentage points in polls.
Because Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are no longer in this competitive range, the number of spectator states will reach a high of 41 in 2024.
NPV Guarantees Presidency to Winner of Popular Vote
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact bill would guarantee that the candidate who receives the most popular votes across all 50 states and the District of Columbia will become president.
Simply put, the Compact ensures that every vote, in every state, will matter in every presidential election.
Like our current system, the Compact is a state-based approach that preserves the Electoral College, preserves state control of elections, and preserves the states’ power to control how the President is elected.
To date, the National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by 16 jurisdictions with 195 electoral votes – including 4 small states (DE, HI, RI, VT), 8 medium-sized states (CO, CT, MD, MA, NJ, NM, OR, WA), 3 big states (CA, IL, NY), and the District of Columbia.
The bill would take effect when enacted by states with 75 more electoral votes.
The Compact has passed at least one chamber in 9 additional states with 88 more electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA), with endorsements from 3,522 state legislators from all 50 states.
The shortcomings of our current system of electing the President stem not necessarily from the Electoral College per se but from “winner-take-all” laws that have been enacted by state legislatures in 48 states.
These laws award all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state – even if that candidate wins by 1 vote or 1 percentage point.
Because of these state winner-take-all statutes, presidential candidates have no reason to pay attention to the issues of concern to voters in states where the statewide outcome is a foregone conclusion.
For example, in 2012, all 253 general-election campaign events were held in just 12 states, and two-thirds were in just 4 states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa). Voters in 38 states were just blown off.
Similarly, in 2016, almost all campaign events (94%) were in the 12 states where Trump’s support was between 43% and 51%. Two-thirds of the events (273 of 399) were in just 6 states (OH, FL, VA, NC, PA, MI).
State winner-take-all laws adversely affect governance. Battleground states receive 7% more federal grants than “spectator” states – twice as many presidential disaster declarations and more Superfund enforcement exemptions.
Also, most notably, because of state winner-take-all laws, five of our 45 Presidents have come into office without having won the most popular votes nationwide. The 2000 and 2016 elections are the most recent examples of elections where a second-place candidate won the White House.
Near-misses are also common under the current state-by-state winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes. According to the NPV, a shift of 59,393 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have elected John Kerry despite President Bush’s nationwide lead of over 3,000,000 votes.
Article II, Section 1 or the U.S. Constitution gives the states sole authority to award their electoral votes: “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors....”
It Takes Time to Build Dysfunction
The winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes is state law. It isn’t found in the Constitution. In fact, only three states used the winner-take-all method in the inaugural presidential election of 1789 in which George Washington beat John Adams who became vice president; by 1800. all three repealed it. It wasn’t until 1828 that even half the states used winner-take-all laws.
The National Popular Vote interstate compact will go into effect when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough to elect a President (270 of 538).
At that time, every voter in the country will acquire a direct vote for a group of at least 270 presidential electors supporting their choice for President. This group of 270+ presidential electors will be supporters of the candidate who received the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC, thus making that candidate President.
In contrast, under the current system, a voter has a direct voice in electing only the small number of presidential electors that their state is entitled to. Under NPV, every voter directly elects 270+ electors.
Contrary to popular opinion, big cities will not dominate a national popular vote – they’re simply not as large as is commonly believed compared to the entire population of the country.
For one, the biggest 100 cities by population contain just one-sixth of the U.S. population (16%), which typically vote over 60% Democratic.
Rural areas – defined as places outside the nation’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) – contain one-sixth of the population and typically vote about 60% Republican.
Surprisingly to some, the biggest cities are almost exactly balanced out by rural areas in terms of population and partisan composition.
The remaining two thirds of the population live in America’s suburbs – i.e., inside an MSA, but outside the central city; these suburban areas are close to being evenly divided politically (although the trend has been growing in Democrats’ favor).
There are a few dozen other myths that the NPV attempts to dispel in support of the National Popular Vote compact. Plus, NPV’s website (nationalpopularvote.com) also contains the history and current status of NPV in every state.
This certainly isn’t a panacea for what all ills our nation, but It’s a good place to start a civil debate.