Earlier this week, I posted something to my readers that I thought was pretty interesting. Some of you have already seen this, but stick with me, as we're going to ponder on it some more. So, here's what I wrote on Sunday:
There's a financial planner/CPA that posts on twitter, who has a pretty big following. He's been involved in running a stock fund for years, and he's pretty sharp. So, the people that follow him, for the most part, are intelligent folks. He's not some 20 year old that got lucky in the 12 year bull market. No, he's been around for 30+ years and his dad was in the same business. So, he put up a poll for a day. Here's what he asked.
Which is more likely to happen in the stock market into the end of the year?
Melt-up....50.4%
Crash......49.6%
8,206 votes---Final results
Earlier this week, I posted something to my readers that I thought was pretty interesting. Some of you have already seen this, but stick with me, as we're going to ponder on it some more. So, here's what I wrote on Sunday:
There's a financial planner/CPA that posts on twitter, who has a pretty big following. He's been involved in running a stock fund for years, and he's pretty sharp. So, the people that follow him, for the most part, are intelligent folks. He's not some 20 year old that got lucky in the 12 year bull market. No, he's been around for 30+ years and his dad was in the same business. So, he put up a poll for a day. Here's what he asked.
Which is more likely to happen in the stock market into the end of the year?
Melt-up....50.4%
Crash......49.6%
8,206 votes---Final results
Look at the disparity there. Over 8,000 people responded in one day, and they are almost perfectly divided. Now the important part to me is this...he's not asking if the market is going to go up or down by the end of the year. He's asking if we'll wildly run higher in a melt up ( Like we had for those 12 days a while back) or CRASH as in dump for thousands of points.
Almost a perfect divide. Half think they arrange a melt up, half think we roll over and die.
As you can imagine, this isn't normal. In more normal times, there's one reason or another to be bearish or bullish, and a trend that makes calling the near future a little easier. You'd expect to see something like 75/25 or 80/20, etc. But no, almost perfectly split.
This poll proves that we're in a time period where anything can happen.
Like what? Well, the central banks could come out of the blue and pivot. ( they won't) The War could expand into nuclear ( it could) or the War could end with peace talks ( possible) Tax loss selling could halt any serious market moves higher ( very possible) Reopening of stock buy backs could push us higher across the board (possible) The elections could go sour with rampant fraud ( likely) The Diesel shortage could shut down commerce ( high possibility) Biden could stop releasing oil reserves, pushing gasoline over 5 bucks.
When you see 3-month Government bills paying more than ten year treasuries, something is horribly wrong. I could go on and on folks.
The end of the year isn't far off. We're in November. Could we somehow just see the market shrug all this off and we go higher for the next 8 weeks? It could. But it's a stretch. It's hopium.
I put that out there, and one of my longer term readers reached out to me and said something along the lines of "by years end? Yeah, 50/50 on that. But after the first quarter of the new year? Then we crash.” At first I said to myself "hmmm, wonder why he thinks that?" and then he answered.
European contagion. He feels that with the energy problems Europe is facing, they're not going to come out of this winter in very good shape at all. Well I certainly agree with that, as we've seen Chemical giant BASF saying they're going to shut down almost all production in Germany and move it to China. France's largest glass manufacturer is shutting down over their energy costs rising 11 times what was normal.
There are hundreds of stories, stories like this one...
Svein Tore Holsether thinks his sector is on the verge of a major wave of relocations. Since late August, the head of Yara, a Norwegian fertilizer manufacturer, has cut down its production by two-thirds across its numerous European plants, three of which are located in France. The soaring price of natural gas, which constitutes its raw material (it is transformed using nitrogen to make fertilizer and several other by-products), has made them no longer profitable. "If you take urea (one of the products manufactured in his plants), for example, when we decided to close, it was costing us $2,000 per ton to make while it was selling for $800.
Energy Central had this to say:
With energy prices at decade long highs, Europe’s most energy intensive companies have begun to shut down. Dozens of plants in a diverse range of industries such as steel, aluminum, fertilizers and the power industry itself, have been forced to close shop as sky-high gas and power prices make their businesses loss-making.
The closures could do long-term damage to Europe’s industrial base. In Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse, the most energy intensive industry are already being hit hard by unsustainable costs: energy accounts for 26% of the metallurgy industry costs; 19% of basic chemical production; 18% of glass manufacture; 17% for paper; and 15% of construction materials, according to Destatis. European carmakers have already begun hoarding windscreens in anticipation of a glass shortage in the months to come.
Over half of Europe’s aluminum smelters have already been affected by the power crises. The EU has temporarily lost 650,000 tonnes of primary aluminum capacity or about 30% of its total, Eurometaux said. Some of Europe’s biggest steel and chemical plants have also been taken offline and there is no clear idea of when they can start up again. And Europe's fertilizer industry association says more than 70% of the continent's fertilizer production has been either shut or slowed due to sky-high gas prices.
So the question of the day seems to be this...IF they don't get Zelensky to the bargaining table with Putin, and this war drags on, can Europe survive this winter? My guess is absolutely not. Let me explain it in darker terms.
I don't care what you think about Russia, but Russia didn't blow up its own pipeline. That was the UK and the US. Why? So that the Europeans wouldn't cave in on sanctions and use that Russian oil. That's pretty ugly. But there's many more irons in this fire. Some of which they don't want you to know. Just understand that at the globalist level, these scumbags don't care how many people get killed in this US backed proxy war. They don't care how many European grandma's freeze to death because they haven't the money to heat their apartments, or couldn't get the gas if they did. They care only about ruling the world, while you and I eat bugs.
Think I'm kidding? This week kicks off the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP27. 35,000 people from 190 countries are known to attend this week’s long blabberfest. 90+ Presidents and Prime ministers, CEO's of major companies, etc. This is supposed to be about climate change, yet there's going to be "gender day" and women and gender constituency. But what I find utterly putrid is that their stated goals are for the reduction of eating meat, and that per capita, humans should be limited to 79 calories from meat per day maximum. They want a "meat tax" to dissuade you from purchasing it, and of course taxing farmers for cow farts.
You can view the menu that THEY get to eat at copgourmet.com but just so you don't have to here's part of the dinner menu:
MAIN DISH
SALMON WITH CREAMY SAUCE AND CHIVE, WITH BASMATI RICE - 40$
ANGUS BEEF MEDALLION WITH MUSHROOMS SAUCE AND SAUTEED POTATOES - 100$
CHICKEN BREAST WITH ORANGE GRAVY SAUCE AND BASMATI RICE - 30$
RAVIOLI WITH PESTO, CHEESE, AND CREAM - 20$
MARINATED GRILLED BEEF WITH GRATED POTATOES, ROOT VEGETABLES AND GREEN PEPPER SAUCE - 35$
GRILLED SEA BASS FILLET WITH LEMON & CAPER SAUCE, CHATEAU POTATO AND MIXED VEGETABLES - 25$
Angus beef? Grilled beef? While meeting to reduce everyone's meat consumption? The hypocrisy is deep.
Okay, back to the story. Europe is getting crushed and it's on purpose. This US Proxy was is NOT only about wanting Russian resources out of Europe. Let me ask you a question. According to every US president and cabinet for decades, who's our "closest" ally? Well the name Israel probably comes to mind. Bingo. And what did Israel find about 10 years ago along their coast? Oh, just this... The Leviathan gas field. 16 TRILLION cubic feet of natural gas. Well, guess what? They want to sell that gas to Europe.
Let's think for a minute...our "best buddies" found a crap-ton of gas and want it to flow to Europe. But Russia already supplies Europe. Could it possibly be that part of the plan is to keep Russia out, and invite all that Israeli gas in? Work it out for yourself.
The only way Europe gets through this winter without being absolutely decimated, is if they negotiate a peace plan with Russia and turn on the valves. Even if that happens, a ton of hurt has already been done, some of it which can't be reversed.
So, my point and my opinion stay the same. We are on track for a horrid economic and stock market crash. Europe will go down first, and it won't be pretty. But that won't happen now. Not between now and year end. My guess is Europe blows up around late February and we get shellacked around April/May. So… could we melt up into year end? Could be, they've sure put on a pretty good show over the past few weeks. Grab what you can, while the grabbin's good. Just understand that this party is not the start of a multi year bull run again. We've got pain in the not so distant future, so be prepared. Good luck.