Chinese President Hu Jintao has come and gone. During that visit we saw no discussion concerning human rights, as demonstrations and riots continue in China, nor was there any discussion of trade and business practices. How can presidents not discuss economic and financial developments and policies when China is the largest world exporter? We are sure they were discussed, but behind closed doors. It was as if everything was scripted and the media colluded completely. It is important to remember China has a predatory communist government. Their economic and monetary policies are similar to the Keynesian philosophy practiced in the US, a corporatist fascist program. As a result of the use of what can be considered forced slave labor and currency manipulation they control a good part of world trade, particularly with the US. As a result China has a $2.85 trillion foreign exchange surplus and holds about $900 billion in US dollar reserves. In fact, as a result, China has some of the very same bubble problems that America has. China is booming and the rest of the world is not. That is due to investment deals with mainly US transnational conglomerates. Free trade and globalization fit these partners just fine, but none of this is supposedly discussed, nor is the loss of 8.5 million jobs over 11 years, as well as the loss of 42,400 businesses. Thus it will be safely tax-free in offshore tax-free locations. The unleveled playing field continues as China makes sure it currency is undervalued by 35%. For years that has kept US inflation down and has allowed China to purchase vast amounts of US dollar denominated bonds. Now instead of using those funds to buy those assets they are getting rid of those assets by spending them back into the world economy. In addition the Chinese demand control of every business deal, plus they demand access to all the technology involved, which these transnationals are happy to comply with. They also employ predatory pricing in almost everything they sell. This erodes the industrial base of other countries such as the US and Europe. You have already seen the decimation of American industry and it is going to get considerably worse. As this proceeds China builds up its war machine, far beyond what is normally necessary. China is not using the buildup of its military development to be used peacefully. America’s elitists obviously either want a military confrontation eventually, or an excuse not to have war and have all nations joined together militarily under One World government. As this transpires the US government and the controlled compliant media keep the US public in the dark as to what is really going on.
China with $2.85 trillion in foreign exchange reserves has by far the largest such reserves in the world. We expect China will continue to use US dollar profits, as well as US Treasury holdings to buy a variety of things worldwide as well as influence, as we have just seen with their lending to sick European countries. Eventually they will work off the majority of US dollar investments. The reply will be, as pointed out just a week ago, that the US dollar isn’t worth the paper it is written on. In time the Chinese will de-peg from the dollar and make their currency even cheaper. It has already stopped using the dollar in trade with Russia. Next it will be with many more nations forcing world trade to use the yuan and not the dollar. They believe that will eventually lead to the supremacy of the yuan, which will be accompanied by gold backing. Under those circumstances the dollar will in fact become a second rate currency and its eventual destruction will be guaranteed. That is why converting all dollar assets into gold and silver shares and coins is so important. What the communist nations could not do militarily they are now doing financially. The only answer to this policy is tariffs on goods and services, not only for China, but also for all nations, which have been doing the same thing to a lesser degree.
Official Chinese inflation is 5.1%; some economists believe it is more than 10%. Our reports have it over 30%. Just leave Guangdong and shop in Hong Kong and you will see the difference. We published a letter this past week written by a Chinese woman that had just returned form China. It explained the extremely high inflation and the inability of the average Chinese to feed themselves properly. Due to government spies everywhere the terrible situation is never discussed in public, only among family and behind closed doors. If you are heard discussing such real issues you are sent to a retaining camp to learn the error of your ways. That can last as long as 15 years. China is still a totalitarian state.
In an effort to suppress unemployment whole cities have been created with no one living in them. Although not official you are limited to one child in order to suppress population growth. These are the people American elitists have opened our society to via transnational conglomerates. This we are afraid has been deliberately done to pursue a path to World Government.
Over the past 2-1/2 years china used a page from Keynesian economics and poured $2.5 trillion into the domestic economy to avoid its collapse just as the US and so many other countries did. Thus, china is faced with the same monetary and financial problems that the US and so many others face. This means China will face the same economic collapse as other nations. Even the increasing of banking reserves and higher interest rates has been ineffectual. This should not go unnoticed at the Fed. The only eventual outcome can be collapse. The remedy of higher rates and bank reserves won’t work this time. Western nations are dependent on the largess of the Fed, perhaps in time China will as well. How long can the Chinese central bank and the Fed keep up the charade? We don’t know and neither does anyone else. All we are sure of is eventual collapse of the entire world financial system. At that time the elitists expect to implement world government. We have news for them. There are too many people who know what they are up to and it is not going to work. Obama and Hu are front men who do exactly what they are told; everything is totally scripted.
The US and states within the US do not realize that the design is to get America dependent on other nations. That reduces the US’s ability to maneuver in relation to other nations. While America descends into austerity the Fed is not only propping up the US economy, but that of Europe as well. China is doing the same thing domestically. All such efforts are doomed to failure and the players know that. This is not stupidity and incompetence. This is the way that the game is to be played out. China knows they are an integral part of this policy.
Last week the Dow fell 1.4%, S&P 1.8%, as the Russell 2000 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.1%. Banks fell 2.2%; broker/dealers 1.4%, as cyclicals rose 0.2%. Transports fell 1%; consumers fell 1.8%; utilities 1.1%; high tech gained 0.6% and semis jumped 1.6%. Internets were unchanged and biotechs fell 1.3%. Gold bullion fell $7.00, the HUI gold index rose 1% and the USDX was little changed at 78.15.
Two –year t-bonds fell 7 bps to 0.55%, the 10-year notes fell 8 bps to 3.35% and the 10-year German bunds fell 3 bps to 3.15%.
The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose 6 bps to 4.80%; the 15’s rose 4 bps to 4.09%; one-year ARMs rose 1 bps to 3.26% and the 30-year jumbo fell 9 bps to 5.41%.
Fed credit increased $3.1 billion to $2.419 trillion. Fed credit rose $185 billion from a year ago, or 8.3%. Fed foreign holdings of Treasury, Agency paper jumped $7.8 billion to $3.351 trillion. Custody holdings from foreign central banks rose $403 billion year-on-year, or 13.7%.
Now get this, M2 narrow money supply, catapulted $46.6 billion to a record $8.862 trillion. Over the past year narrow money grew 4.5%.
Total money market fund assets grew to $2.7 billion, which tells us that money is again moving out of the markets. Year-on-Year assets are only down $4 billion.
Total commercial paper outstanding jumped $71.1 billion to $988 billion, which tells us the Fed is again in that market reinforcing it.
Over the past 15 years China’s success has put other nations into second position when it comes to economic and financial development, but that progress has been accompanied by many problems and the imposition of free trade and globalization. Following the format laid out by the US, China now faces a real estate bubble of major proportions. China’s manufacturing infrastructure, high technology level and $2.85 trillion in foreign exchange is formidable, as is their slave labor component. We should remark that wages have been rising, unemployment is still very high and the trillion dollars in US dollar foreign exchange could become a burden as US problems manifest themselves and the dollar falls lower against all benchmarks. In time we will find out why the US and UK and Europe deliberately allowed this to happen. We still do not know why this challenge was put into place.
There is no doubt in our minds that China is selling dollar dominated assets and buying gold. They correctly believe that their growing gold position will give them an upper hand in the next phase of monetary problems. The western central bank policy of suppression of gold prices only allows China to build up its gold position very cheaply. From our viewpoint the suppression program is eventually doomed to failure.
There is nothing complex about what the Chinese are doing in Europe. They are buying bonds of weaker nations at a discount and selling US Treasuries to do so. This way they reduce their dollar position, get a high yield and gain major influence in Europe. The Germans are happy about the Chinese move because it relieves them of some of the burden of funding wayward euro zone members. These efforts we view as temporary, because none of the underlying problems have been solved. The fact that China is supporting the euro is external and does little to solve its systemic problems. China’s moves are exploitation. That has been their operating procedure in the past, so we expect no change in their policies. Germany has loosened up on technology transfers hoping China will step up and supply a $300 billion bailout at least for this year. It has also been rumored the Chinese intend to exchange those toxic bonds for gold. As far as the sovereign borrowers are concerned they are trying to buy time, so they’ll agree to just about anything.
There is no question by any measure that the US stock market is over priced. Bob Diamond at Barclays Bank says the Fed has already spent $1.7 trillion buying Treasuries. That means banks and brokerage houses have a massive liquidity backup along with zero interest rates. This means we could easily see a normal correction to 10,000 on the Dow and we could see inflation building throughout the year.
Global debt is expanding exponentially threatening the sovereignty of many countries. Along with this we now have problems in Tunisia and Egypt, which could spread throughout the region.
There has been a relentless turndown in the Baltic Dry Index that has to be telling us things could get rocky again in the future.
Considering the above and nine weeks of gains in a row, we should soon see a correction in this bear market rally. The transports have never confirmed the highs in the industrials and in fact they have fallen.
This year will be full of turmoil, so get ready for it.